Punjab Study

Lahore: 09 Feb: Pakistan is a troubled but not a failed state” said British journalist, Anatol Lieven, addressing students at LUMS during his talk on "Pakistan and US Strategy" based on his recent book, Pakistan: A Hard Country. He said that Pakistan as a state is weak against the strong forces operating against it but admired the resilience ‘Pakistan has demonstrated many times over the years.’
In an attempt to look beyond the “epiphenomenon of the electoral politics of Pakistan,” Lieven said he believes that the patronage factor and diversity play an important role. “On one hand the inability of the state to carry out development on a large scale is terrible. On the other hand it seems to me that the factor of patronage which is extracted from the state is distributed far down especially in some areas, does give the system its relative stability and resilience.” He also suggested that this “circulation due to patronage helps explain why Pakistan has extremely low Gini co-efficient [read: inequality]. It is well below India, America and Brazil.” At this point Dr. Adil Najam, Vice Chancellor LUMS, commented that perhaps the large sum of US$ 13 billion remittances also played a huge role in keeping the Gini low as it was free from corruption issues as opposed to the US aid received by Pakistan.
Explaining his inclination towards the Pakistan Army in his book, Lieven explains, “Critics have said that I’m too favourable towards the army but they have, I think, missed a couple of things.” He said that the emphasis was on “relative” when he talked about its honesty and efficiency. He suggested that the Pakistan army has “extracted itself from the normal workings of patronage, kinship and faction by turning into an enormous political baradry.” This, along with greatest sums of money that it restricts to itself, enables the army to use its resources in a relatively organised and hierarchical fashion as it does not have to worry about being removed.
Lieven identified the inability of Pakistan to raise revenue as a fundamental cause of its weakness. He said that it is often suggested that reduction of military budget would solve the country’s problems. “It would make a difference but raising revenue will make a much bigger difference.” Dr. Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Professor of Political Science, SHSSL, also pointed out that while 28% of the budget went to the military, 55% is used for debt servicing which is conveniently ignored by everyone.
Responding to a question raised by a student regarding the dependence of Pakistan on US aid and that whether the country can actually sustain itself without the aid, Lieven said that it is possible. “If Pakistan can pull itself up and not steal back revenue then it can be good without the US aid,” feels Lieven.
Speaking about the militancy of Pakistan, he believes that shariah is usually misinterpreted and that the Taliban in Pakistan have gained tremendous advantage from claiming to represent and propagating it. Lieven is of the opinion that there is a “profoundly lazy and misleading” stereotyping by the west which unfortunately many Pakistani journalists also take up. There are many moderate Muslims in the country along with some extremists. On a lighter note he said that if Washington equated moderate Muslims to a pro-American foreign policy or pro-American policies in Afghanistan then there would hardly be any moderate Muslims around.
Furthermore he articulated some fears for Pakistan. In the short to medium future he said that Pakistan’s militants may not be restricted in terms of terrorism but they are restricted in terms of insurgency into the rest of the territory. Moreover, he said that in case the US traces a terrorist attack back to Pakistan it would largely extend its drone missions and aggressive strategies. However he suggests that “America must seek peace settlements instead in order to prevent the country from a complete breakdown.” In the longer future, Lieven expressed a very serious warning concerning the water situation in Pakistan. He said that “Now is the time to do something rather than act when something has to be done. The projected statistics for the next 40 years are very worrying.”
Concluding, Lieven said that no matter how flawed the democracy of Pakistan is, it has created a commendable balance between provinces. He admired the resilience of the people and the country and expressed a hopeful future ahead given that “Pakistan gets its act together.”
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